城际列车开行方案的客运量预测及评价

Traffic Volume Forecast and Evaluation of Intercity Passenger Train Operation

从铁路运输企业的角度,由分析影响旅客列车客运量因素入手,利用灰色理论建立铁路旅客列车开行方案的客运量GM(1,h)预测模型,构建评价其经营效果(经济效益和经营风险)的计算方法.以沪宁线为背景,预测城际列车开行方案的客运量,并对其经济效益和盈亏平衡点分析计算,为铁路运输企业设计旅客列车开行方案提供科学依据.

In view of railway transportation enterprises, this paper analyses the factors that influencing the passenger volume of train and sets up a GM(1,h) prediction model of passenger volume for train operation by the grey theory, calculation method for evaluating its management effects (economic benefits and management risks) is constructed. And Huning route is studied as an example. This paper predicts, the passenger volume of inter city train operation, as well as analyses and calculates the economic benefits, profit and cost balance in order to provide the scientific in basis for railway transportation enterprises in designing the passenger train operation.