试析我国贸易余额波动的成因

What Accounts for China's Trade Balance Dynamics?

本文对HoffmaisterandRold幃ｓ( 1 999,2 0 0 1 )与Prasad ( 1 999)两文中的模型进行了扩展 ,构造了一个结构向量自回归模型 (SVAR) ,用以探讨在 1 985— 2 0 0 0年间影响中国贸易余额的因素。文章分析了国外供给冲击、国内供给冲击、相对需求冲击及名义冲击等四类因素对贸易余额的影响 ,并注意区分了结构性和短期性因素。研究结果表明 :实际冲击 ① 是影响中国贸易余额的主要因素 ;人民币汇率存在一定程度的低估 ,但汇率变动对贸易余额影响不大。因此 ,货币性手段将不足以解决所谓的中国“贸易失衡”问题。

This paper proposes a structural VAR model which extends the frameworks of Hoffmaister and Roldós (2001) and Prasad (1999). The model is then used to analyse the sources of China's trade balance fluctuations in the period of 1985—2000. Efforts are made to distinguish the forces which underlie the long-run trend in trade balance from those with transitory impacts. The effects of four types of shock are examined - the foreign supply shock, the domestic supply shock, the relative demand shock and the nominal shock. Among other findings, two emerge as important. First, the movements in China's trade are largely the result of real shocks. Second, the Renminbi is undervalued, yet changes in the exchange rate bear little on the trade balance. Therefore, monetary measures would not suffice to redress China's trade “imbalance”.