中国居民家庭的收入变动及其对长期平等的影响

The Household Income Mobility and Its Equalizing Long-term Income in China

本文利用“中国经济、人口、营养和健康调查”1 989— 1 997年期间 4期家庭收入和家长特征的模块数据 (paneldata) ,用时间依赖定义收入变动 ,度量了全体家庭和分4种类型的家庭在上世纪 80年末至 90年后半期的收入变动。发现在总体收入分配中 ,高比例持续贫困的发生比较分散 ,并不固定在哪一类型的家庭上。平均而言 ,农村家庭的持续贫困比例稍高。与此相反 ,持续高收入的家庭集中在城市、郊区和城镇 ,农村的富裕家庭变动大 ,收入不稳定。分组家庭之间 ,农村家庭的收入变动最大。分组家庭内部 ,家长为中年和壮年人的家庭人收入景况较好 ,富裕老人家庭能否保持富裕在农村和在其它分组差别很大。总体而言 ,我国居民家庭收入分配的变动在这一时期减慢 ;收入变动在所有4个时期内都有利于分配的平等 ,2 0世纪 90年代中期后在农村和城镇家庭的作用大幅减弱 ,但对改善城市家庭的平等分配作用增强。

Reconstructing 4 sets of panel data of household incomes and the properties of the household heads extracted from the China Economic, Population, Nutrition and Health Survey, this paper measures the income mobility of overall distribution and 4 household groups from the end of 1980s to the late 1990s. Income mobility is defined by the concept of time-dependence. Within the overall incomes distribution we find 1) the household groups that persistently stayed at the bottom quintile with higher probability were uncertain; 2) the closer a household group dwelled to cities, the greater likelihood the households of the group at the top quintile would remain their position next period. The rural households at the bottom would stay there next period with a little bit higher probability than averagely, however they remained at the top with an indeed lower probability. Among the household groups, the rural ones shared much high degree of mobility than the other 3 groups. Within each sub-group, the households with their heads were at the age of 40—49 and 50—59 or receiving more schooling shared more well-beings. At the all 4 periods, the income mobility helped to equalize the income distribution among the households. Its role as the income equalizer decreased in late 1990s among rural and township households, but increased among urban households.