基于AHP的实用中长期电力负荷预测综合模型

Practical comprehensive model for medium and long-term load forecasting based on AHP

针对中长期电力负荷预测特点,提出了一种基于AHP(层次分析法)的中长期电力负荷预测综合模型。以历史数据的拟合精度、预测结果与未来经济社会发展的一致性、预测者对模型的信赖度为目标准则;通过自适应进化规划和判断矩阵的方法确定综合模型的最优权重。该方法不仅基于科学计算,同时也考虑了专家经验,在实用中取得了较为满意的结果。

Aiming at the features of medium and long-term load forecasting,a comprehensive model for medium and long-term load forecasting based on Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)was put forward.Making the fitting accuracy of historical data,accordance of forecasting result and future development of economy and society,the confidence of forecaster with the model as targeted rules and through methods of self-adaptive evolutionary planning and judgement matrix,the optimal weighting of the comprehensive model was determined.Based on scientific computation and considering the experts' experiences,the method achieves satisfactory results in application.