跨境流动地下资金规模与汇率变化的关系

The Relationship between Underground Fund Floating Across the Border and Misalignment of Exchange Rate

本文运用国际收支货币存款项目余额与国内外汇存款变化的差异分析法测估中国地下资金跨境流动的规模,并对地下资金跨境流动与汇率偏离程度的关系进行对比分析发现:汇率的偏离程度与地下资金的跨境流动相互影响,汇率偏离程度越大,跨境流动地下资金规模越大;本期跨境流动的地下资金增加对下一期汇率的偏离程度具有显著影响。

After estimating the size of the underground fund floating across the border with analysis of the difference between balance of money and deposit in BOP and the change of foreign exchange deposit in banks, we study the relationship between underground fund floating across the border and misalignment of Exchange Rate. We find that the more serious misalignment of exchange rate, the more inflating size of underground fund floating across the border, underground fund size inflating this period will give great influence to misalignment of exchange rate in next period.