区域公路OD流量预测新方法研究

Research on Forecast of Regional Highway OD Traffic Flow

公路交通OD流量预测是进行区域公路网规划、公路建设项目可行性研究的重要依据。传统的OD矩阵流量预测往往显得繁重和精度不高。本文研究以网络流观测数据为基础,利用极大熵模型推算出OD矩阵,以此作为计算过程的手段和参变量,考虑节点交通产生、吸引量的趋势增长及诱增增长,以此得出网络流的预测值。最后,通过扬州市公路交通部分OD对模型进行了验证。结果表明,该模型的运用能大大简化OD预测过程和提高预测精度,具有较高的实用价值。

The forecast of Highway OD traffic flow is the basis to process the regional highway network planning and the feasibility study of highway construction project.Traditional OD flow forecast methods are more complex and less precise.Basd on the observed data of the network flow,this paper makes use of the maximum entropy model to educe the OD flow.Having considered the trend flow increase and the induced flow increase of the node traffic generation and attraction,we can forecast the network flow.In the end the whole model is tested by using the YangZhou highway OD flow.The result indicates that the application of the model can greatly simplify the process of OD forecast and improve the forecast precision.So the model is a practical.