北方沿海地区农业现代化进程的定量评价

Quantitative Appraisal of Agricultural Modernization Progress in Northern Coastal Provinces

在分析农业现代化内涵的基础上,吸取国外经济发展和农业现代化理论与实证的研究经验,对比分析国内的最新研究成果,提出农业现代化水平评价的指标体系和测算方法。在收集大量实证资料的基础上,利用层次分析法和数学模型对北方沿海地区(国家软科学研究项目2002DGQ2D054"北方沿海城市实现农业现代化的战略研究"所界定的研究区域———辽宁、河北、天津、山东三省一市)的农业现代化进程进行定量研究,对北方沿海地区的农业现代化进程进行评价分析。

Based on the connotation of agricultural modernization and the assimilation of the foreign economic theories and international empirical study experiences, as well as the analysis of the latest domestic research result, this paper proposes the index system and calculating means to appraise the agriculture modernization. According to a great deal data coming from empirical researches, the paper makes a quantitative research to study the agricultural modernization progress in the northern coastal provinces (the research area designated by National Soft Science Program 2002DGQ2D054, Strategic Research on Modernization in Northern Coastal Provinces, including Liao Ning, He Bei, Tian Jin, Shan Dong), by using AHP and mathematic model. Finally, the paper analyses and appraises the progress of agriculture modernization in these provinces.