中国棉花生产波动的实证分析

A Case Study on China's Cotton Production Fluctuation

运用内部传导与外部冲击模型对我国棉花产量波动的形成原因进行了实证分析 ,结果表明 ,政策和自然灾害等外部冲击对棉花生产波动的影响较大 ,而在影响我国棉花产量波动的内部因素中 ,种植面积的波动是最主要的因素。

This paper analyzes the cause of China's cotton production fluctuation, using th e model of Internal Propagation & External Shock. It indicates that the shock fr om natural disaster and the policy is the great factor to influence the cotton p roduction, and the fluctuation of planting area is the main reason in the inter nal factors.