大型复杂系统平均寿命评定的Monte Carlo方法

Monte Carlo Method of MTTF Evaluation for Large Complex System

随着现代武器系统和工程系统的大型化与复杂化趋势,大型复杂系统可靠性评定是急待解决的问题,工程中常用可靠性指标有可靠度和平均寿命,平均寿命指标由于直观、物理概念清晰,使用更加方便。基于可靠性框图建模,采用最小路集计算分析,提出了大型复杂系统平均寿命评定的Monte Carlo方法。解决了有限样本条件下,大型复杂系统平均寿命评定问题,对工程中大型复杂系统平均寿命评定具有重要应用价值。

The large and complex trait is a trend in modern weapon equipment and engineering system, and the method of reliability evaluation is urgently required. MTTF (Mean Time to Failures) has very important value in engineering application, because it is more convenient than reliability (probability expression). Based on reliability diagram modeling and calculation of minimal path sets, Monte Carlo sampling simulation method of MTTF is obtained for large complex system. The presented method can be easily used in engineering for MTTF evaluation of large complex system, where limited testing data of unit life time is required.