2005年中国宏观金融形势展望

本文从投资、消费、进出口贸易入手,分析中国2005年宏观经济增长趋势,并对财政政策、货币政策走势,以及金融业前景做初步分析预测。本文认为,2005年我国GDP增长放缓,将保持8.3%左右的增长速度;财政政策将注重结构优化,调减政府支出总量,逐步由“积极”走向“稳健”;货币政策总的态势是中性偏紧,货币供应量有望与2004年持平或略升,预计增速在15.5%左右;2005年继续加息的可能性较大,加息的幅度大致为0.5～0.75个百分点;央行择机改进汇率形成机制,使人民币适度升值(如5%)的可能性进一步增大。2005年,影响银行业发展的主要有五大因素:步入加息周期;国有银行改制上市;外资银行进入加快;资本不足和汇率调整等。在这五大因素的作用下,2005年银行业发展将呈现三大特征:一是增长平稳,银行业金融机构的贷款增速将保持在2004年的同一水平或略有上升;二是银行业务面临结构转型;三是行业的整体素质大幅提升。

This article analyses 2005 China macroeconomic growth trend, based on investment, consumption and international trade The trends of Fiscal policy, monetary policy and financial industry is also put into the framework As China GDP growth rate slows, but is expected to maintain at 8 3%, the fiscal policy is turning from “agressive”to “steady”while focusing on structural optimisation and reducing government expenditure Monetary policy is expected to be slightly tight than neutral, with equivalent or slightly higher money supply growth rate of 15 5% Interest rate hike of 0 5 -0 75 percentage in 2005 is likely The central bank will choose an appropritae timing for the exchange rate forming mechanism and it is more likely to see RMB appreciation ( e g 5%) Five factors will be influential for the banking sector in 2005: 1) upward trend of interest rate; 2) reform and IPO of state-owned banks; 3) acceleration of foreign banks invasion; 4) insufficient capital; and 5) exchage rate revision The banking sector is thus expected to be characterized as 1) total credit growing at same or slight higher rate than 2004; 2) business undertaking structural changes; and 3) significantly improved asset quality