水资源系统管理的广义保证率与多目标模糊优化

Generalized Guaranteed Rate and Multiobjective Optimization for Water Resources Systems Management

综述了水资源系统管理可靠性研究现状,指出水资源系统管理中存在着两种不确定性——随机性和模糊性。从一般情况出发,在同时考虑随机性与模糊性的基础上,提出了广义保证率概念、定义及其分析计算方法,并用多目标模糊优选随机动态规划(MOFOSDP)模型研究了一类带广义保证率目标的水资源系统运行管理多目标优化问题.实例计算结果表明,提出的带广义保证率目标的MOFOSDP模型合理可行,优于传统方法。

This paper surveys the state-of-the-art of the reliability for water resources systems management and points out that there exist the stochastic and fuzzy factors influencing the uncertainties of the systems. The conception, definition, and computational method of the generalized guaranteed rate are presented, with considering the stochastic and fuzzy properties in a general aspect. The multiobje ctive optimization problem with generalized guaranteed rate objectives in water resources systems is studied by multiobjective fuzzy optimal selection stochastic dynamic programming(MOFO SDP). Finally, a case study is given.