P-Ⅲ型分布参数的矩估计与设计洪水的计算频率

Moment estimation for parameters of Pearson Type-Ⅲ distribution and calculated frequency of design flood

水文频率计算成果的可靠性与防洪安全有直接的关系.如按现行水文频率计算方法推求设计值,则会出现目标设计频率远远小于期望概率的问题,将会造成防洪安全隐患.为提高设计值的精度,在探讨上述问题的同时提出了一种根据计算频率推求设计值的方法.

The reliability of hydrological frequency calculation is directly related to the safety of flood control. The fact that, in current methods for hydrological frequency calculation, the design frequency of objectives is far lower than the expected frequency may result in some hidden troubles in flood control according to the criterion for flood control. Based on an analysis of the above problem, an approach for its solution is proposed, i.e. to derive the value of design frequency based on the calculated frequency, so that the precision of the design value can be improved.