货币政策效应的微观基础研究——我国居民消费储蓄行为的实证分析

The Micro-foundation Studies of Monetary Policy Effect--An Empirical Analysis of the Chinese Residents' Consumption-savings Behavior

本文对居民消费储蓄行为在理论回顾的基础上进行实证分析,以期揭示影响现阶段我国居民消费储蓄行为的基本要素及其影响机制。分析发现我国现阶段决定居民消费储蓄的最主要因素仍然是居民收入,但必要生活水平对消费行为有重要影响;对利率敏感度较差的工薪收入在居民收入中比重甚高,而对利率敏感度较高的金融资产收入比重甚低;决定居民消费储蓄的收入主要为持久性收入而非暂时性收入;居民收入的不确定性上升和风险意识的增强,导致预防性储蓄增加。这些因素综合作用导致我国居民消费储蓄对利率的敏感度较低,货币政策效应下降。

Based on the consumption-savings theory, we make an empirical analysis to explore the fundamental factors that affect the current consumption-savings behavior of Chinese residents and its working mechanism. Through the analysis, we find the necessary living texture play an important role though income remains the dominant factor. The major part of Chinese residents' income is composed of wages and salaries, which are insensitive to interest rate fluctuation. And the income from financial securities, which is highly sensitive to interest rate, only accounts for a very small part. It is permanent income rather than transient income that has a decisive impact on Chinese residents' consumption-savings behavior. The rising uncertainty of expectant income and the intensifying risk consciousness lead to an increase in precautionary saving. All these factors synthetically make for the insensitivity of Chinese residents' consumption-savings to interest rate, and thus weaken the effect of monetary policy.