SD模型在区域可持续发展规划中的应用

Application of System Dynamic Model in Regional Sustainable Development Planning

区域"自然-社会-经济"复合系统是一个具有耗散结构的开放巨系统,具有高阶次、多变量、多回路和强非线性的反馈结构,系统行为往往具有反直观性、对内部参数变化的不敏感性等特性.运用系统动力学理论与方法建模较传统的数学模型更能充分刻画系统的非线性结构和动态特征.论文着眼于区域可持续发展系统的复杂动态关系,以县级区域为研究对象,探讨经济自然增长、经济高速增长和经济适度增长三种方案下的县域可持续发展模式,并比较优选出最佳模式,旨在为促进县域可持续发展提供借鉴.

Regional 'nature-society-economy' complex system is an exoteric gigantic system with dissipation structure and high-step, multi-variables, multi-loops and nonlinear feedback structure, the action of the system sometimes have anti-vertical and a think skin to the changes of interior parameter. Applying system dynamics method to establish models of regional sustainable development can depict systemic nonlinear structure and dynamic character more adequately than traditional mathematic models. With a view to the complex dynamic relation of regional sustainable development system, taking county region for an example, three projects were simulated: (1) Economy accrual method. The intensity of resource exploitation and environment pollution is the least, but the speed of its economy development is the lowest. (2) Economy high-speed development method. The intensity of resource exploitation and environment pollution is the worst, economic development mostly depends on high investment and pollution. (3) Economy moderation development mode. The mode considers not only economic sustainable development and natural recourses utilizing reasonably, but also gives attention to pollution protection and development of industry, agriculture, tourism and so on. So it is the best mode.