退耕还林:成本有效性、结构调整效应与经济可持续性——基于西部三省农户调查的实证分析

Sloping Land Conversion Program:Cost-effectiveness,Structural Effect and Economic Sustainability

退耕还林工程是一项规模宏大的生态工程，其经济效率、预期效果和可持续性是全社会广为关注的问题。本文使用中国科学院农业政策研究中心2003年对西部三省(陕西、甘肃和四川)退耕还林地区进行的农户抽样调查数据。对退耕还林工程的成本有效性和工程在经济上的可持续性进行了评估。我们发现退耕还林工程在实施过程中表现出较高的瞄准效率和较低的成本有效性(存在较大的成本节约空间)。计量分析发现工程在促进农民增收和结构调整方面作用甚微，因此其经济可持续性存在很大的疑问。另外，本文还就退耕还林工程的操作程序、政策改善的方向等进行了讨论。

The efficiency, effectiveness and sustainability of China’s massive Sloping LandConversion (to forests) Program (SLCP) have been focus of attention worldwide. Using datafrom a 2003 rural household survey in three of the pilot provinces (Shanxi, Gansu and Sichuan),we carried out analyses of cost effectiveness and economic sustainability of the program. Our anal-yses demonstrated that the targeting of the program was reasonably well but cost effectiveness wasless than satisfactory (large room for cost saving). We used unobserved effect panel data model toevaluate impact of SLCP on rural household income and found neither general income increase norincome structure improvement. These findings raise concerns over economic sustainability of theprogram.