电子现金需求分析及其仿真模型研究

Demand Analysis and Simulation Model of Electronic Cash

针对电子现金需求的动态不确定问题,定性分析电子现金需求的影响因素及其所在系统的复杂性,运用Vensim软件构建电子现金需求系统动力学模型,定量研究电子现金需求相关变量间因果关系及需求变化的动态规律,并进行数值仿真。结果表明电子现金需求主要取决于成本优势及其适用范围的扩大,同时与收入、扩散率和流通速度等密切相关,从趋势上表现为电子现金需求不断增加,需求增长率由小到大,又逐渐减小,最后需求趋于平稳。

The dynamic and uncertain problem of e-cash demand is analyzed qualitatively by considering influencing factors and system complexity. Further, System Dynamics model is built and simulated by Vensim software so as to research the correlation among the variables and the dynamic principle of demand changes quantitatively. The results indicate that e-cash demand is mainly decided by the cost advantage and the extension of transaction scopes. Moreover, e-cash demand is closely related to income, diffusion rate and circulation rate, etc. It is shown that the e-cash demand is increased, but the increase rate changes gradually from high to low and eventually tends to remain stable.