城市用水量短期预测方法的比较研究

Comparison of city water consumption short-term forecasting methods

国内外用于城市用水量短期预测的方法有很多,但是这些方法在模型的建立、求解及预测精度、速度、适用条件等各方面均存在着自身的优势和不足.本文在多年研究的基础上,借鉴了在其它领域预测中应用比较成熟的方法,对时间序列三角函数分析法、人工神经网络预测法、灰色系统理论预测法以及小波分析法用于城市用水量短期预测的精度、效果、适用条件等方面进行了系统的研究比较,并得出了相应的结论.

There are a lot of methods in city water consumption short-term forecasting both inside and outside the country. But among these methods there exist many advantages and shortcomings in many aspects such as the model establishing, solving and predicting accuracy, speed, applicability. This paper draws lessons from other realm mature methods after many years′ study. It′s systematically studied and compared to predict the water consumption in accuracy, speed, effect and applicability among the time series triangle function method, artificial neural network method, gray system theories method, wavelet analytical method. The corresponding conclusion is also received.