港口吞吐量预测的时序残差修正Verhulst模型

A Verhulst Model on Time Series Error Corrected for Port Throughput Forecasting

灰色系统预测模型是一种进行港口吞吐量预测的有效方法。但是,当港口吞吐量按照“S”型曲线增长或增长处于饱和阶段时,采用灰色模型进行吞吐量预测的误差较大,预测精度不能满足实际要求。根据港口吞吐量的增长规律,通过典型实例提出了基于时序残差的港口吞吐量预测Verhulst模型,用于中长期港口吞吐量预测。应用结果表明,本模型对于那些暂时处于快速增长而从长远看按“S”型曲线增长的港口吞吐量预测具有较高的预测精度,同时保留了灰色预测方法的原有优势和特点。

The grey system model is efficient for long-term port throughput forecasting. However, it is imperfect when the throughput increases in the curve with S type or the increment of throughput is in the saturation stage. In this case, the throughput forecasting error of grey system model will become larger and the result is unaccepted. According to the increment law of port throughput and through typical examples, we propose the Verhulst model on time series error for middle & long-term throughput forecasting. The result shows that when the throughput increases according to the curve with S type, not only higher forecasting accuracy can be obtained, but also the superiority and features of grey system model can be reserved.