对我国外汇风险预警指数的估计及其主要影响因素分析

Estimate of Early Warning Index of Foreign Exchange Risk in China and Analysis of Main Influential Factors

利用我国的实际有效汇率、利率、外汇储备的实际数据,我们计算了外汇风险预警指数和判断外汇危机发生与否的临界值,并对影响我国外汇风险预警指数的主要因素进行了分析。通过实际计算发现, 1992年和 1993年我国外汇风险预警指数超过了临界值, 1994年国务院及时地进行了外汇管理体制改革,使外汇风险预警指数保持稳定。可见这次汇率管理体制的改革成效是显著的,它不仅使我国外汇市场得到了健康稳定的发展,而且为国民经济的快速发展创造了十分有利的条件。

In this paper we calculated the early warning index of foreign exchange risk and the threshold, which could judge if foreign exchange crisis would take place by using the data of real effective exchange rate, interest rate and foreign exchange reserve, and analyzed the main factors, which influenced the early warning index of foreign exchange risk in our country. Through calculating actually, the early warning index of foreign exchange risk in our country exceeded the threshold in 1992 and 1993. In 1994, the State Council carried on the reform of foreign exchange management system in time, which made the early warning index of foreign exchange risk keep steady. Obviously, the effectiveness of the reform was remarkable. It not only made the foreign exchange market of our country develop healthy and steadily, but also created advantageous condition for the fast development of national economy.