尾矿区重金属污染浓度预测模型及其应用

Forecast Models of Heavy Metal Contamination nearTailing Dam and Their Application

为了研究尾矿库周边农田土壤重金属污染状况,通过调查收集了国内某铅锌矿山尾砂库周边农田重金属含量的历史数据,应用指数平滑法建立了预测尾矿库重金属污染浓度的数学模型,并计算了不同平滑系数时数学模型的精度,同时应用建立的数学模型对该区域10a后的重金属浓度进行了预测。研究结果表明:10a后该尾矿库周边重金属Pb,Zn,Cd和As浓度将分别为预测时的1.335,1.191,1.886和2.710倍;指数平滑法的应用效果与平滑系数的选取关系密切,应用时,要根据指数平滑法建立的物理意义正确地分析和选取平滑系数,并对预测的精度进行分析。

In order to investigate the farmland soil heavy metal pollution near a metal mine, the exponential smooth method was used to establish the mathematical models based on the history measuring data for forecasting the heavy metal concentration. Accuracy analysis of the models with different smooth coefficients were conducted, and the mathematical models were applied to forecast the heavy metal concentration near the tailing dam in the future of ten years. The forecast results show that Pb,Zn,Cd and As concentrations near the tailing dam in 2022 will be (1.335,) (1.191,) 1.886 and 2.710 times more than that in 2002 respectively. Because of the accumulated effect, the heavy metal pollution will bring serious harm to the nearby citizens, the smooth coefficient is the key factor in the application of the exponential smooth method. To apply the exponential smooth method, analysis and selection of the smooth coefficients should be made carefully.