继电器触点接触电阻的时间序列短期预测

THE TIME SERIES SHORT-TERM PREDICTION ON THE CONTACT RESISTANCEOF CONTACTS OF RELAY

预测继电器触点接触电阻的研究对于预测其接触可靠性，乃至预测其整体可靠性均具有非常重要的意义。文中研究了接触电阻的时变规律，将触点闭合状态变化划分为稳定、不稳定和趋势三种状态变化，从而能判定接触的稳定性能。以接触电阻作为预测参数，建立了组合预测模型，即对不同状态变化的接触电阻采用不同的预测模型。实例预测结果表明该预测方法能够短期预测稳定和趋势变化的接触电阻。从而能对因接触不良导致的接触失效作出合理预测。

The prediction study on the contact resistance of relays is very significant to that on the contact reliability of relays, even to the whole reliability. The change-time law of the contact resistance is studied. According it, contact states are sorted into steady-going, erratic-going, direction-going. Sequentially, the contact stability can be determined. The contact resistance is taken as the only prediction parameter and the assorted prediction model is developed. The assorted prediction model indicates that different prediction models are introduced in different contact states. The result of the prediction on the example shows that the contact resistance of contacts in steady-going and direction-going can be predicted in short cycles by the model. Thereby, the failure from contact badness can be predicted reasonably.