沟谷泥石流危险度评价研究

Evaluation of the Risk Degree of Debris Flow in Ravine

运用逻辑学中演绎推理的方法定义了泥石流危险度的内涵与外延。根据专家通讯调查结果,确定了一次泥石流冲出物最大方量和泥石流暴发频率作为判定泥石流危险度的主要危险因子。运用灰色关联度分析,优选出10项判定泥石流危险度的次要危险因子。并根据关联序确定了它们的权重。在各危险因子等级划分的基础上,得出了泥石流危险度的定量计算公式。通过云南省东川地区应用实践的检验,证明该判定方法具有60%以上的可靠度。

Through the deductive method of logic,the intension and extension of debris flow risk degree are difinited.Based on the result of expert's inquiry,it has determined the maximum vol- ume of a debris flow and frequency of debris flows as the leading factors to evaluate the debris flow risk degree.Applying the grey relative analysis,ten factors are chosen as the secondary fac- tors to evaluate the debris flow risk,according to the relative degree sequence,it has decided the factor's weights,on the basis of grades of risk factor,it has gained the quantitative formula to evaluate the ravine type debris flow risk degree.After the practice and test in Dongchuan region of Yunnan province,it is proved that this method proposed by this study is of more than 60 per- cent reliability.