用模式识别方法估计水库诱发地震危险性

Estimating The Risk Of The Earthquake due to Reservoior With The Method Of Pattern Recognition

水库蓄水后可能诱发的地震危险性估计是工程地震工作中的一项重要环节,其中可能诱发的地震强度是人们特别关注的要素。本文基于国内外41个水库地震震例,从目前对水库地震形成机理的认识水平出发,提取了15个可能的诱震指标,应用模式识别的一些方法对水库蓄水后的诱发地震危险性进行复因子评估,通过内符检验讨论了这些方法在水库诱发地震危险性上的估计效能,给出了其错误概率估计值,结果表明,这些方法能够相对客观和合理地评定水库蓄水后可能诱发的地震危险性水平大小,在工程上具有一定应用价值。

It is an important link in seismic engineering research that the risk of the earthquake is estimatod after reservoir holding water,and the strength of the earthquake due to reservoir is the parameter that is paid attention particularly. From the recognization Ievel of the formation reason of a reservoir earthquake are put forward based on the fortyone examples of internal and external reservoir earthquake. The risk of the earthquake due to a reservoir holding water is made multifactor estimation with some methods of pattern recognition. The estimation effect for the risk of the earthquake due to reservoir is discussed through the testing of internal accord. The estimation value of error probability is put forward. The results make it known that the methods can evaluate the risk of the earthquake due to a reservoir holding water objectively and reasonably. It has specified application value in engineering.