中国四大河月径流随机变化特性的探讨

Probing into Characteristics of Random Change for Monthly Runoff at Four Large Rivers in China

本文依据中国四大河(长江、黄河、松花江、西江)观测资料,用随机水文学的方法探索了四大河月径流时序变化特性和空间变化特性并在此基础上研究了表征月径流变化特性的模型。结果表明简单的季节性一阶自回归模型加上随机项的偏态变换可用来表征月径流的时序变化,主站模型可用来表征月径流的空间变化。结果还表明:长江和黄河月径流量的变化基本上是同步的,长江和松花江的月径流量变化表现出异步的趋势。

Based on observed data of four large rivers (Yangtae River. Yellow River ,Songhua River and Xi River),the Characteristics for time series change and space change of monthly runoff are studied by random hydrology. The models for monthly runoff change characteristics are analyzed according to the previous studies. The results show that the time series change of monthly runoff can be represented by the simple,seasonal, first order autoregressive model and Skewing change of random term. The space change of monthly runoff can by expressed by main station model. The results also reveal that tze changes of monthly runoff for Yangtae River and Yellow Riveris basically synchronous,while that of Yangtze River and Songhua River is intent-ed to be asynchronous.