摘要
本文应用广州中心气象台1984—1986年“强对流天气监测与临近预报试验”资料,分析讨论连续数日发生强对流天气的条件概率及其发生范围,指出广州地区的强对流天气灾害主要是2—3天的系统性天气过程引起的。同时在前一天有无强对流天气的发生,对当天发生强对流天气与否的概率有显著不同。文章还以对流层水平风的垂直切变为标准将强对流天气分为二类四型,并逐型分析其发生的天气背景、稳定度指标、强对流天气发生频率的月际变化和日变化,指出各型强对流天气的卫星云图特征,为强对流天气的临近预报提供思路和方法。
The data of the monitoring and nowcasting experiment on severe local storms (1984-1986) in Guangzhou region has been analyzed to discuss the conditional probabilities of the occurrence and cover areas of severe local storms lasting several days. It was pointed out that the disastrous weather was resulted mainly from synoptic systems. Moreover, the probabilities for such convective storms on a day varied significantly with whether or not there had been the same occurrence the day before.
In terms of the vertical wind shear for the pre-storm environment, the severe local storms were divided into four types in two categories.For each type,we also analyzed the synoptic environment, the static stability indices, the frequency of the occurrence, and the characteristics on satellite imagery. These could provide some ideas and methods to the forecast of severe local storms.
出处
《热带气象》
CSCD
1989年第2期170-179,共10页
