区域货运量预测方法的比较

Compare of regional freight volume forecast methods

本文在对货运量预测理论和程序概述的基础上,介绍并比较了常用区域货运量预测方法的优缺点,重点分析了基于产业结构测度的区域货运量预测的基本原理,实证分析表明,该种方法都较目前常用的宏观货运量预测方法优.

Based on the description of theory and process of freight volume forecast, the paper introduces and compares several typical regional freight volume forecast methods, and emphatically analyzes the principle of regional freight volume forecast based on industrial structure measurement. Empirical analysis indicates that the method preferred in paper is more effective than other micro freight volume forecast methods currently used.