全球视野下的中国能源

Energy Situation of China in Global Background

中国能源真正的忧患存在于2020年以后,届时中国液体燃料的消费将十分巨大,如若继续按现有模式发展,对世界石油格局产生的影响将是重大的。我们必须从现在起,认真对待和深入研究煤基液体燃料等前瞻性的问题。本文认为全球能源需求增长总体平稳,资源不会成为能源供应的限制性因素;强调交通领域能源消费的增长,不仅是发达国家,而且也是发展中国家能源增长的主要动力和源泉。未来的中国能源问题,将更直接地表现为液体燃料的供应问题,煤基液体燃料是最有可能大规模替代石油的新型燃料。

The real hardship facing to Chinese energy will be appeared after 2020. At that time, the consumption of liquid fuels will be greatly demanded. If China continues to be developed in an existing mode, it will produce a significant impact on the structure of the world oil market. To avoid such conflicts, we have to seriously deal with, and study on such strategic problems as the coal-based liquid fuel from now on. This paper is on the base of global vision, and takes a long-term view and combines international politics theories with energy technologic methods to explain that the multi-poles world structure, the balanced relationship among powerful countries and the realism of region cooperation will benefit the long-term development of energy industry. It also considers that the global energy demand increase steadily in view of its entirely. Therefore, the resources will not become a limiting element for energy supplies. And it emphasizes that the increase of the consumption in the transportation field is also a motivation and a source for energy increase, not only for developed countries, but also for developing countries. It concludes that the future Chinese energy problem will lie in the supply of liquid fuels directly and coal-based liquid fuels may become the new fuel to likely replace oil on a large scale.