基于模糊判断可信度的作战方案优选模型

Battle alternative optimization model based on reliability of fuzzy judgment

受战场情况复杂多变、侦察情报不充分和指挥员知识经验、作战胆略等限制,指挥员就决策问题进行两两对比分析时,对作出的每个判断的把握程度是不同的。针对决策者就有限方案集进行两两方案比较得到的模糊偏好的把握程度存在差异,提出将决策者进行两两比较判断的把握程度作为判断的可信度,建立了一种决策者对所有二元对比的加权偏差平方和最小的非线性规划模型。该模型充分利用现有决策信息,决策结果相对比较合理、客观、可靠,可为指挥员进行指挥决策参考。

The commander's judgments in making pairwise comparison for battle alternative decision making are different because of the complicacy of the battlefield situation, reconnaissance information insufficiency, commander's knowledge and experience shortage. In view of the different judgments for the fuzzy preference from pairwise comparison on the finite alternative set, the judgment reliability is first introduced to measure the judgment of the decision maker in pairwise comparison. With an objective function of the weighted least squared errors, nonlinear programming is made, and then the proposed model is derived. With thorough consideration of the decision making information, this model avoids the drawbacks of the existing ranking methods without taking into account the judgment reliability of the decision maker. Case study shows that the proposed model is efficient, flexible and simple, and provides a novel approach for the research of commander's decision making.