沪津GDP增长回归模型比较及发展前景研究

The Comparison of the Multivariant Regression Models of Shanghai's and Tianjin's GDP Increases and the Study of Their Development Foreground

分别选取长三角中的上海市和环渤海中的天津市,建立并比较它们国内生产总值(GDP)增长的多元回归拟合模型,并通过对环境变量系数的灵敏度分析,解释其代表的深刻经济意义,从而推测天津市未来发展前景。建立的多元回归拟合模型,对于GDP增长处于由平稳到加速过程中的城市,有非常好的拟合效果,对环境变量系数的灵敏度分析,对于分析我国城市发展的状况和影响因素,有重要的理论和现实意义。

This paper establishes and compares the Gross Domestic Products (GDP) increases multivariant regression models of Shanghai and Tianjin, by analyzing the delicacy of the coefficient of the environment variable, explains their profound economic meaning,and forecasts the future development foreground of Tianjin. The established Gross Domestic Products (GDP) increases multivariant regression models have the excellent fitting result for the cities the GDP increase of which is being in the process from the steady to the acceleration. The analysis on the sensitivity of the environmental variance coefficient possesses important theoretical and practical significance for the analysis on the developing situation and influencing factors of our country's cities.