我国人口与社会经济重心的动态演变

DYNAMIC EVOLVEMENT OF THE POPULATION AND THE SOCIAL ECONOMY GRAVITYCENTER IN CHINA

本文利用区域重心的概念及其模型,计算了1978-2002年我国逐年的人口重心和社会经济重心,得到人口重心和社会经济重心的动态演变轨迹,分析了人口和社会经济发展区域差异的动态变化及其驱动因子,并对人口重心和社会经济发展重心的动态演变趋势进行了对比分析。

Taking the conception and model of the regional gravity center and adopting the data collecting from each province (city or district) from 1978 to 2002, this paper calculates the population gravity center and the social economy gravity center yearly, figures out the dynamic evolvements of these two gravity centers and analyzes the dynamic change of the population and economy regional differences and their related causes and at the same time, makes a contrastive analysis of the dynamic evolvement tendencies of the two gravity centers. The results show that the population gravity center makes a slow and steady move to southwest China since the opening up and reform of the country, which indicates that the population distribution tends to equilibrium in the longitude direction, however, it is disequilibrium in the latitude direction. GDP gravity center also moves to southwest China from 1978 to 1991, which indicates that the economic development differences are lessening in the longitude direction, however they are widening in the latitude direction. From 1991 to 2002, the GDP center moves to the southeast, which indicates that the economy regional development differences are widening both in the latitude direction and the longitude direction. The secondary industry gravity center also moves to southwest, which indicates that the differences in the longitude direction is lessening, however it is a little widening in the latitude direction. But the third industry and the social consumption centers move to southeast all the while, which indicates that differences are widening in both directions. However the first industry dose not show obvious change because the first industry mainly consists of the agriculture industry and the whole agriculture development level is low. The agriculture production depends on much natural condition, which leads to the randomicity of the agriculture distribution. Against the geometry center of China, the regional differences in general are widening. Against the population center, the social economy takes on imbalanced development in the longitude direction; however it tends to balance in the latitude direction.