中国——国际航运中心的伟大复兴

China-Grandeur Rebounding of International Maritime Tradeing Center

明朝初年,中国引领国际航运中心的潮流。1433年以后,国际航运中心逐渐衰退。中国的衰败为欧洲列强的崛起提供了机会。今天,中国重振国际航运中心,到2010年进口贸易货物总量将达到10亿吨,大幅度进口货物的增长需要对新船超过250亿美元的投资。由此,将引发新一轮的投资热潮。近期世界干散货租船市场发生的船舶短缺证实了船舶投资不足的问题。在充满不确定性的经济增长和航运中心的复兴中,如何把握航运中心复兴,投资是首要问题。

China lead the world in maritime technology during the early Ming dynasty, then withdrew at the height of that dynasty, leaving the way open for the European traders. Today China is back and by 2010 imports could reach 1milliontons.Thisgrowthcallsfor new ships costing well in excess of $25 billion, and will lead to new upsurge for investment. Recent events in the dry cargo market demonstrate the cost to importers of under-investment. But trade growth in transitional economies is always uncertain, so how will this massive shipping investment be managed becomes our primary question.