中国经济的直接物质投入与物质减量分析

Direct Material Input and Dematerialization Analysis of Chinese Economy

一个国家的经济发展需要物质投入,投入的物质量越大,对自然资源的消耗越多,排放的废弃物也越多,因此造成的环境压力也就越大。降低环境压力实现可持续发展的根本途径在于减少经济系统运行所需的物质量。本文以德国Wuppertal气候、能源、环境研究所提出的物质流账户系统为基础,计算了1990年～2002年中国经济系统的直接物质投入,并对其进行了减量化分析和国际比较。结果表明:中国直接物质投入(DirectMaterialInput DMI)为27×108t～42×108t,DMI中90%以上是国内物质,这一比例比日本高约20个百分点,比荷兰高约40个百分点,说明我国经济发展主要依赖自身资源的支撑;中国的人均DMI量为3t左右,约为英国的1 5、荷兰的1 9;中国的DMI使用效率(单位DMI创造的GDP)也比发达国家低很多,1996年只有不到200美元 t,约为同年荷兰的1 5、日本的1 11;但中国的DMI使用效率在升高,过去8年的平均年增长率约为6%,说明我国经济实现了一定程度的物质减量;通过对未来50年中国人均GDP增长率的估计以及国家计划生育委员会对2050年中国人口的预测得出,若保持经济增长的同时实现DMI使用量的零增长,2050年中国的DMI使用效率应是现在的5倍或10倍,即年增长率达到3 35%或4 85%,实现这一目标是完全可能的。

Material input is necessary for a country's development. More material input, more natural resources' consumption and output into social system; hence the environmental stress will be more serious. The ultimate method to decrease the environment stress is to decrease the material input into economy system. This essay is based on the material flow account developed by Wuppertal climate, energy, environment institute in German. Direct material input has been calculated from 1990～2002 in China, and dematerialization analysis and international compassion have been done in this essay. The results indicate: Direct material input in China is 2.7～4.2 billion tons from 1990～2002, 90% of direct material flow is domestic material, which is 20 percents higher than Japan, 40 percents than Netherlands. From these we know Chinese economy development strongly depended on domestic resource in past decades; Direct material input per capita of china is about 3 tons, which is 1/5 of England、1/9 of Netherlands; Direct material input efficiency of China is much lower than developed countries, which is less than 200 dollars per ton, about 1/5 of Netherlands, 1/11 of Japan at the same year; But direct material input efficiency of China is increasing; the average growth rate per year is about 6% in the past 8 years. This indicates relative dematerialization is reached in past decades in China. Through estimating the average growth rate per year of GDP per capita and the predicted value about Chinese population in the future 50 years from National population and family planning commission of china, the direct material input efficiency of China in 2050 should five or ten times than present if direct material input's zero growth is realized meanwhile economy development remain increase, i.e. the average growth rate per year of direct material input efficiency should be 3.35% or 4.85%.