中国小麦的耕地竞争力及其对小麦供求平衡的影响

Wheat Planting Aares and Its Influence on the Balance of Wheat Supply and Demand in China

本文对我国小麦主产区与小麦具有耕地竞争关系的不同农作物之间的成本收益进行了比较,发现我国小麦主产区中黄淮海麦区的河南、山东两省小麦种植面积下降,但优质专用小麦播种面积扩大,长江中下游麦区中的湖北、四川和东北麦区中的黑龙江小麦播种面积也出现不同程度的下降。研究结果说明,在耕地资源有限并且不断减少的情况下,由于各主产区的小麦成本收益率较低,部分地区的小麦品质较差,小麦的耕地竞争优势下降,从而导致小麦种植面积持续下降,小麦产量不断减少。但优质专用小麦的品质和生产效益较好,我国优质专用小麦的种植面积和产量大幅度提高。同时,产量下降会直接影响我国小麦市场的供求平衡,通过对建立的中国小麦供求平衡表分析,如果我国小麦种植面积继续减少,今后2年～3年内我国小麦供求格局将会发生逆转,国内小麦供给总量不能满足国内需求的情况,将对我国小麦的国际贸易产生重大影响。

Wheat is the main crop in China, and takes up an important role in the system of crop. In these years, the price of wheat is decreasing and the benefits of peasants are decreasing, therefore, the wheat-planting areas are declining in return. The wheat-planting areas of China has been in declination for 6 years and the product in China will face up with the challenge coming from international market. This article firstly analyzes the cultivated land resources competition inflicted by wheat and its comparative crops. And then the article compares the cost and benefit of wheat and the comparative crops in main provinces in China. The result shows that in Henan and Shandong of Huang Huai-hai Plain, the wheat area is decreasing while the area of good quality wheat is increasing. In in the lower and middle reaches of Yangtze River in Hubei and Sichuan provinces and Heilongjiang in the northeast China, the wheat area is decreasing too. Then we conclude that under the condition of land resources limiting and decreasing, the wheat competition is low in some area, because of the lower ratio of cost and benefit and bad quality, and thus leads to the declination of planting area and output of wheat, and while the good quality wheat planting area and output are increasing because of good ratio and quality. The declination of yield can affect the balance of the supply and demand, and with the balance sheet we can conclude that if the planting area is descending, then the pattern of supply and demand in China will change in 2～3 years, the domestic supply will not meet demand and will change the pattern of import in China, and China will be the net import country again in return. Attention should be paid to this phenomenon and trend by some administers.