雷电灾害对珠江三角洲区域经济发展的影响

Influence of Lightning Disaster on Regional Economical Development in the Pearl River Delta

本文分析了珠江三角洲城市群雷电灾害对国民经济影响造成的损失及其基本特征。研究表明,珠江三角洲地区是广东省雷电灾害高发区,中心位置位于广州东北的从化和增城区,整个珠江三角洲为一个雷电发生高值区,同样的土地面积上雷电灾害发生的次数是全省平均水平的1倍以上,雷电灾害造成的损失占该地区自然灾害损失的6%左右,最高年份可达9 25%,该地区雷电灾造成的损失远高于全省1 46%的平均水平。雷电灾害已经成为影响珠江三角洲地区的第四大灾害,每年因雷电灾害损失都在5000×104元以上;雷电灾害对国民经济的影响因地域有较大差异,但与雷电灾害的发生概率、区域经济总量关系密切,每年雷电灾害造成的损失与雷电发生的次数、该地国内生产总值相关系数分别在0 9和0 8以上,总相关程度达到了0 9665。

Being an area that is frequently attacked by natural disasters, the Pearl River Delta is subjected to increasing serious impacts of lightning damages amid rapid growth of the economy. This paper analyzes the economic loss caused by lightning disaster occurring in the cluster of cities in the Pearl River Delta and the characteristics of the lightning disaster by quantitative analysis methods in order to fully realize the influence of lightning disaster on the national economy of Pearl River Delta. The study shows that the delta is an area with high frequency of lightning disasters in Guangdong province, where the frequency of lightning disaster is more than twice as much as the average of the province. The highest frequency occurs in Conghua and Zengcheng, northeast to the Guangzhou city, and the whole delta is an area of high frequency. The proportion of the loss caused by lightning disaster to those caused by natural disaster in the district is about 6% and even as high as 9.25% in years of the largest frequency. The loss caused by lightning disaster is much higher than the average level of 1.46% across the province. Lightning disaster becomes the forth disaster affecting the development of Peal River Delta, which causes an annual loss over 50 million yuan. The influence of lightning disaster on the national economy differs in different areas but has close relation with the frequency of lightning disaster and total regional economic value. The coefficients are 0.9 and 0.8 in the correlation between lightning-caused loss and lightning occurrences and total output of the national economy in the region, respectively, with the overall correlation being as high as 0.9665.