中国华南地区气候和环境变化特征及其对策

Features of Climatic and Environmental Changes in the South China

本文用1951年～2002年的季气温、降水资料,研究了华南区季气温、降水在近52年的长期趋势变化。结果表明,华南区季平均温度明显升高,升温幅度从0 03℃ 10年到0 25℃ 10年。广州、海口在4季升温都是最显著的,夏季广州趋势系数高达0 71,平均每10年升温0 250。按季节看,夏季是升温最明显的季节。还指出,华南区的季降水量趋势系数虽然比较小,但多数是正趋势。特别地,北海、湛江、海口的夏季降水量有明显的增加趋势。北海、湛江、海口、桂林、阳江5个城市平均的夏季降水量平均降水量的趋势系数是0 37,也就是在1951年～2002年,每10年增加降水量49 6mm。还用最新资料研究和总结了华南区气候和环境变化特征。文中指出,台风影响频繁、风暴潮灾害严重、涝灾频繁、三废污染、严重酸雨、水质性缺水、赤潮危害加剧、外来物种入侵面积较大,海平面上升、海岸、滩涂生态遭受破坏、红树林面积大幅度减少、岩溶石漠化加剧是该地区可持续发展的重大气候与环境问题;环境问题加剧了气象灾害的经济损失,文中就此提出了对策和防治措施。

The secular trend variation of seasonal temperature and precipitation in the south China region for recent 52 years is investigated using the data of seasonal temperature and precipitation data for 1951～2002. The results show that seasonal mean temperature is increased significantly with regression coefficient from 0.03℃/10 year to 0.25℃/10 years. The seasonal temperature in Guangzhou and Haikou are most notability increased and trend coefficients of summer mean temperature in Guangzhou is highly 0.71 (0.25℃/10 year). Summer temperature of four seasons is the most significantly increased. Besides, trend coefficients of seasonal rainfall for most cities in the south China region are positive, despite of the smaller values. Especially,summer rainfall of Beihai,Zhanjiang and Haikou is increased notability. The trend coefficient of summer precipitation averaged over Beihai, Zhanjiang, Haikou, Guailin and Yangjiang during 1951～2002 is 0.37,i.e.49.6 mm rainfall are added in every 10 years during 1951～2002. The features of climatic and environmental changes in the south China region are studied and summarized in this paper by using the latest data, and it is pointed out that typhoon happens frequently and caused sever storm surge disasters, frequent flood, waste pollution, grave acid rain, water shortage due to water quality, damage to ecological environment derived from red tide,and foreign species and agricultural non-point pollution became more and more serious, relative sea-level rising、sea beach ecological economic system degradation、the area of mangrove forestry decreased sharply、Karst rock desertification are the major climatic and environmental problems for realizing strategies of sustainable development in this region. Environmental deterioration exacerbates the economic losses of meteorological calamities. Aiming at the climatic and environmental problems, some countermeasures and preventing harnessing measures are presented.