Logistic和Lotka—Volterra模型参数的灰色估计方法研究

Study on the Parameter Gray Estimation of Logisticand Lotka—Volterra Model

根据灰色系统建模原理,对Logistic模型中的参数进行了估计,将此方法应用于Gause(1934)草履虫实验数据的拟合,并与已有拟合结果对比,说明此方法是有效的.然后将其推广至两种群的Lotka—Volterra模型参数的确定,来研究山西省人口—经济系统的发展演化状况,得出了满意的结果.

According to the modeling principle to gray system, the parameters in Logistic model have been estimated. It proved this method is effective by applying it to paramecium experimental data Gause (1934) and comparing it with already results. Then it is extended to determine the Lotka—Volterra model's parameters of two-species population. And the development and evolution of population-economy system in Shan-Province is studied and the results are satisfactory.