朝鲜核问题的三种解决前景与中国的政策选择

Three Future Solutions to Nuclear Crisis in North Korea and Policy Option of China

朝鲜核问题有三种发展变化前景:第一种前景,美国对朝发动军事打击,引发东北亚局部战争;第二种前景,通过谈判和平解决,朝放弃核武计划,美等有关国家向朝提供经济与安全补偿;第三种前景,朝在时机有利时突破核门槛,成为事实上的核国家。第一种前景和第三种前景都不符合中国的利益,中国应努力争取朝核问题循第二途解决。

There are three growing promises involved in the nuclear crisis in North Korea.First,the military attack started by the U.S. will lead to a partial war in North-East Asia.Second,with the support of economic and safety compensation offered by the U.S. and countries concerned,North Korea will give up the plan of nuclear weapons through peaceful negotiations.Third,North Korea will break through the nuclear threshold at the beneficial time being a real nuclear state.China should expect to resolve the nuclear issue of North Korea with the second solution since the first and third ones are not in keeping with the interests of China.