独联体经济一体化问题的若干分析

Analyses of CIS Economic Integration

独联体经济一体化是一个值得深入思考的问题。作为不久前处于同一经济空间的国家 ,它们今天的融合却显得格外困难。本文从地区经济一体化的理论梳理和现实观察出发 ,认为独联体国家之间尚缺乏一体化的一般基础 ,其经济的互补性不强 ,相互提供的市场有限 ,转轨的速度和成效各异 ,同时又存在一些利益矛盾和冲突。上述因素决定独联体一体化将是一个渐进的过程 ,一段时间内双边合作仍将是主要的 ,在 3～ 4个最发达的独联体成员国之间发展经济一体化成功的希望最大。而且 ,这一一体化将是动态和开放的。

Confederation of Independent States economic integration is a question worthy of in-depth deliberations. As countries sharing the same economic space not long ago, the CIS found it particularly difficult to integrate themselves into a complete whole. Combing the regional economic integration theory and actual inspection, this article holds that interrelations among the CIS member states still lack the general basis for integration as they have little economic complementariness, providing each other with very limited markets, differing in transitional speed and efficacy while getting involved in clashes and conflicts of interest at the same time. These factors determine that CIS integration will be a gradual process in which bilateral co-operation remains predominant within a certain span of time and the economic integration among three or four most developed countries will most hopefully be crowned with success. On top of these, the integration will be dynamic and open.