理性预期规则的产权与效率——理性预期学派公平效率观的产权分析

Property Right and Efficiency of the Rational Anticipation Rule —— an analysis of the property right of equal efficiency view of the school of rational anticipation

理性预期学派认为,人是有理性的,能够作出理性预期,凯恩斯主义的宏观经济政策和收入均等化意义上的公平观因为受到理性预期的影响而缺乏效率。其实,理性预期要受信息充分的程度、财产权利关系清晰的程度和人的机会主义行为等因素的影响,所以,无论是凯恩斯主义的宏观经济政策及其收入均等化意义上的公平观,还是理性预期学派的理性预期规则及其机会平等意义上的公平观,其有效性都是有限的。

The school of rational anticipation holds that humans are rational, and therefore they could make rational anticipations. Under the influence of this belief, Keynes' view of equality on the basis of macro-economic policy and income equalization has proved to be inefficient. As a matter of fact, rational anticipation is often affected by various factors such as the fullness of information, the distinct ion of relations between property and right and the opportune behavior of humans. Therefore efficiency is always limited as to the view of equality in the sense of Keynes' macro-economic policy and his income equalization as well as to the view of equality in the sense of rational anticipation law and opportunity equality advocated by the school of rational anticipation. China must learn from the success and failure of the experiences of Keynesism and the school of rational anticipation in the application of macro-economic policies.