2003年北京市SARS疫情空间相关性分析

Spatial association analysis on epidemic of SARS in Beijing, 2003.

空间数据相关性分析是针对具有空间属性的事物之间的相互关系进行有效的认知和解释,以便于辅助预测与调控的方法手段.SARS疾病的突然爆发与蔓延,为区域的发展带来极大的损失,有效认识SARS疫情的空间过程,对于其防治的决策具有重要意义.本文利用北京市公布的SARS病例数据,采用空间数据相关性分析手段,试图分析出SARS的空间过程.结果发现,整个SARS的空间聚集状态存在两个转折点,即人群对疾病的恐慌并迁移引起的疫情扩散和对疫情采取有效防治策略、定点医院的成立后疾病的空间聚集,及后期疾病得到有效控制,呈现零星发作状态而出现空间扩散趋势.新增病例的热点探测证实了空间聚集度的变化趋势,而以街道社区尺度进行的密切接触者的热点探测分析则表明:SARS的空间传播,最早应该是一级热点区域(主要分布在二环内)随机分布状态,后随着人群的空间分布与流动,而出现与人群分布相关的热点区域分布状态.

Exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA), newly emerged technique with application of information technology, especially with geographical information system (GIS), can be used in studying objects with spatial reference to effectively perceive and interpret the relationship among them. Sudden breakout and spread of SARS caused a disaster in regional development. It is important to effectively perceive the spatial process and association of SARS for decision making on prevention of SARS. With published data of SARS of Beijing in 2003, spatial process of it had been analyzed. The results indicated that there were two turning points in spatial distribution of SARS. One was the diffusion trend with panic in population; the other was the random outbreak cases trend with effective measures taken. Further more, the trends were also proved with hotspots detecting method used in newly possible cases, as well as random hotspots distribution of SARS cases in loop two and correlated distribution with population and flow of people.