美中贸易收支与人民币汇率关系:实证分析

The U.S.-China Trade Balance and RMB's Exchange Rate: An Empirical Analysis

针对美中贸易收支与人民币汇率问题,经研究发现,汇率变动对贸易收支的影响是值得怀疑的,仅仅依靠人民币汇率变动是无法解决美中贸易逆差问题的。1994—2002年年度数据实证显示,美中贸易收支与人民币汇率(名义或实际汇率)之间没有稳定的关系;1998—2003年月度数据计量表明,美中贸易收支与人民币汇率之间没有长期稳定的协整关系。并且,依据美中两国月度统计数据计量的结论是相一致的。因此,“人民币升值论”或许更多的是基于政治而非经济因素,人民币汇率浮动并不能解决美中贸易逆差问题。

As to the relationship between U.S.-China trade balance and RMB's exchange rate, this study shows that it is uncertain whether the effect of exchange rate volatility on trade balance or not, and it is impossible to resolve U.S.-China trade deficit, depending only on the movement of RMB's exchange rate. The annual data during 1994-2002 shows empirically that there is no stable relationship between U.S.-China trade balance and RMB's exchange rate (nominal or real exchange rate). The monthly data during 1998-2003 shows econometrically that there are no long-run and stable cointegrating relationships between U.S. trade (imports, exports and trade balance) with China and RMB's exchange rate. Moreover, the conclusion derived from U.S. Census Bureau monthly data is consistent with that from China National Statistical Bureau monthly data. Therefore, the argument on RMB's appreciation is based upon political factors in great degree rather than economic factors. It is impossible to resolve U.S.-China trade deficit issues with an attempt to have RMB's exchange rate floated.