基于计量模型的新疆县域经济差异预警分析

An early-warning analysis of the difference of county-level economy in Xinjiang on the basis of an econometric model

文章采用经济预警的基本原理,对新疆县域经济绝对差异和相对差异警情状况进行了分析 和预报。通过建立计量经济模型对新疆县域经济差异的警戒水平进行了测算,表明新疆县域经济绝对差异 从1994年开始,就超过了警戒水平。同时借鉴国内外居民收入相对差异警戒线的划定,初步对以基尼系数 反映的县域经济相对差异的警限、警情、警度进行了界定,并据此对新疆目前的县域经济相对差异的警情 状态进行了判定和预报,得出了一些基本的结论和政策启示。

Adopting the basic principles of economical early-warning theories, the authors analyze and predict the warning status of the absolute and relative differences of county-level economy in Xinjiang. They estimate the warning level of the difference of county-level economy in Xinjiang by setting up an econometric model and show that the absolute difference of county-level economy in Xinjiang has exceeded the warning level since 1994. The authors, borrowing ideas from the definition of the warning limits of the relative difference of household income at home and abroad, give their initial definitions of the warning limits, warning status, warning degree of the relative difference of the county-level economy in Xinjiang reflected with Gini coefficient, hence they make their judgment and prediction of the warning status of the relative difference of county-level economy in Xinjiang at present and draw some basic conclusions and inspirations for policy-making.