由苍蝇传播引起E.coli O_(157):H_7感染爆发的评估模型的建立

Quantitative microbial risk assessment on E.coli O_(157):H_7 of an outbreak in China

目的 建立苍蝇对E .coliO157:H7传播作用的定量危险性评估模型。方法 在Excel工作表中模拟E .coliO157:H7的粪口传播过程 ,利用 @RISK软件对模型进行MonteCarlo模拟。结果 由此交叉污染途径引起人群感染的概率为 10 -5～ 10 -3 /餐。模型预测的结果与爆发调查数据基本吻合。通过模型分析可知 ,苍蝇排泄物中的含菌量及苍蝇的数量是影响人群感染危险性的重要因素。结论 以苍蝇污染途径模拟E .coliO157:H7感染危险性的定量评估模型 。

Objective To develop a quantitative risk assessment model to simulate the role of fly in the transmission of E.coli O 157:H 7 from animal excretion to human foods. Methods An Excel spreadsheet model was constructed in which variables were represented by distributions based on experimental and surveillance data. Results The estimated mean risk was 10 -5 to 10 -3 per serving. Estimated results of model were mainly accorded with the surveillance data. The risk assessment model was sensitive to the input distributions describing number of bacteria in fly's excretion and number of flies. Conclusions The quantitative risk assessment model was a very useful tool to assess the relationship between hazard and risk in quantify the role of fly in transmitting E.coli O 157:H 7.