中国建筑业与国家财政政策

CHINESE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY AND THE NATIONAL FISCAL POLICY

积极的财政政策在中国已实行了多年 ,为国民经济的稳定增长和持续繁荣发挥了显著作用。但是对于建筑业的产出规模和国家财政政策之间的关系 ,却一直没有深入的实证分析 ,导致不能在该产业内提供全面的政策实施评价 ,产业发展的政策动力不明。本文考察了中国建筑业增加值和国家财政基本建设支出自 195 2— 2 0 0 1年以来的增长率之间的Granger因果关系 ,结果发现 :建筑业产业增加值和国家基建支出之间的因果关系不明显。可见刺激经济还是要通过市场主体发挥作用 ,政府部门的支出对私人投资有“挤出效应”。

Active fiscal policy has been implemented in China for years and contributed sig nificantly to the stabilization and prosperity of national economy.With regard t o the relationship between the output from construction industry and the nationa l fiscal policy,few in-depth analyses exist,resulting in un-holistic assessemen t of the industry policy and little knowledge about it drive from policy.This pa per examines the Granger Causality between the growth rate from 1952 to 2001 of the value-added of construction industry(CVA)of China and of the government expe nditure on infrastructure(INF).The results indicate insignificant Granger causal ity between CVA and INF.It is proposed to stimulate the economy via various enti ties or parties in the market,whereas the government's expenditure has `push out'effect on private investments.