美中贸易逆差与人民币汇率:实证研究被引量：54

美中贸易逆差与人民币汇率:实证研究

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摘要 1998年～2003年月度数据计量表明,美中贸易逆差与人民币汇率之间没有长期稳定的协整关系.并且,依据美中两国月度统计数据计量的结论是相一致的.由此,人民币汇率浮动并不能解决美中贸易逆差问题.美中贸易逆差主要集中在原料制品、机械与运输设备,以及杂项制品贸易上,造成美中贸易逆差的真正原因是中国在劳动密集型和资源易耗性产品对美贸易上发挥出比较优势,而美国在高技术产品对华贸易上由于出口管制政策没有发挥出比较优势.政策建议是,美国要想缩减美中贸易逆差,就必须逐步取消在高技术产品贸易上对华出口管制政策.对于中国来说,在鼓励出口的同时,应重视从美进口,采取以出口带动进口,以进口促进出口的贸易政策.

作者沈国兵

机构地区复旦大学经济学院

出处《南开经济研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2004年第6期65-71,共7页 Nankai Economic Studies

基金本文是国家社会科学基金资助项目(批准号:04CJY021) 中国博士后科学基金资助项目的阶段性成果之一。

关键词贸易逆差人民币汇率中国高技术产品进口比较优势出口鼓励结论美国 U.S.-China Trade Deficit RMB’s Exchange Rate Goods Trade by Classifica- tion Trade of High-tech Products and Export Control Policy

分类号 F224 [经济管理—国民经济]

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参考文献12

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二级参考文献3

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