山东1736年来逐季降水重建及其初步分析

Seasonal Precipitation Reconstruction and Analysis in Shandong Province Derived from the Archives in the Qing Dynasty Since 1736

于清代雨雪档案记载及现代农业气象与气象观测记录 ,根据降水入渗的土壤物理学模型与水量平衡模型 ,恢复了山东济南、泰安、潍坊、菏泽、临沂等 5个地区 1 736～ 1 91 0年逐季降水量 ,建立了各站 1 736～ 2 0 0 0年的逐季降水序列。初步分析结果表明 ,山东各站间的季节降水变化具有较高的相关性与一致性。 1 761～ 1 770年、 1 781～ 1 790年、1 791～ 1 80 0年、 1 80 1～ 1 81 0年、 1 981～ 1 990年等 5个年代的降水明显偏少 ,1 861～ 1 870年、1 871～ 1 880年、 1 881～ 1 890年、 1 90 1～ 1 91 0年等 4个年代则明显偏多。其变化总趋势可概括为 :1 8世纪中前期 ,山东降水相对较多 ;1 8世纪中期起进入少雨期 ;1 9世纪中后期转为多雨期 ;1 9世纪末至 2 0世纪初 ,降水明显减少 ,再次进入相对少雨期 ;2 0世纪 60年代中期以后 ,降水又一次降至较低水平。 1 990年起 ,山东降水有所回升 ,重新进入了相对多雨期。

Based on snow and rainfall records derived from the archives in the Qing Dynasty (1644—1911AD), the agro-meteorological and meteorological instrumental, according to soil physics model of rainfall infiltration and the surface water balance equation, the approach for reconstructing precipitation quantificationally was developed. The seasonal precipitation were reconstructed in the five areas of Ji'nan, Tai'an, Weifang, Heze and Linyi in Shandong Province during the period of 1736—1910, and the seasonal precipitation series in 1936—2000 were reconstructed. The result shows that there exists high relationship among the change of seasonal precipitation for the five areas. At the decades of 1761—1770, 1781—1790, 1791—1800, 1801—1810, 1981—1990, the precipitation is lower obviously, but at the decades of 1861—1870, 1871—1880, 1881—1890, 1901—1910, the precipitation is higher. In Shandong Province, the trend of precipitation change can be concluded as follow: The precipitation is relative high before the middle of the 17th century. From the middle of 17th century, it became droughty. From the middle of the 19th century, it became wet again. From the end of the 19th century, the precipitation decrease obviously, the climate turned into relative droughty period again. The precipitation dropped to a lowest level in the 1960s. From the 1990, the precipitation begins to increase, the climate turns into relative rainy period again.