灰色系统方法在地震预报中的应用

APPLICATION OF GREY SYSTEM METHOD IN EARTHQU AKE-PREDIC-TION

本文利用灰色系统理论中的GM(1,1)建模法,以南北地震带不同地域内不同震级层次地震的发生时间为样本,建立了13个预测模型,用于对未来地震的发生时间进行预测。利用其中关于5.0≤M≤5.9地震的模型较为准确地预报了1989年11月宁夏固原5.0级地震的发生时间。

In this paper, taking the origin times of earthquakes with different magnitudes, which occurred in different areas of North-South Seismic Belt as samples, the GM (1,1) building model method of the grey theory is used to build 13 prediction models.Using these models, the origin times of coming earthquakes have been predicted.The origin time of Guyuan M5.0 earthquake, Ningxia on Nov.2, 1989 was predicted betterly using the model with 5.0≤M≤5.9.