南北地震带年最高震级序列的建模和预测

ESTABLLSHING MODEL AND PREDICTION ON THE HIGHEST YEARLY MAGNITUDE SEQUENCE OF THE NORTH-SOUTH SEISMIC BELT

本文应用A.G.Ivakhnenko提出的数据处理的分组方法的基本思想,以生物有机体演化的方式,给出了一种自动选择模型的最佳形式和参数,构造高阶自回归模型的方法,并用此方法对南北地震带年最高震级序列做了建模和预测检验,效果较好。利用上述方法,本文还对南北地震带未来5年最高震级作了预测。

In this paper, by using the basic idea of the method of dividing into groups in data handling proposed by A.G.Ivakhnenko, according to the way of creature-organism evolution, we have given a method which can select the best form and parameter of the model automatically and construct the higher order autoregression model. Using this method, a trial of establishing model and prediction on the highest yearly magnitude sequence of the North-South Seismic Belt is taken. And the highest magnitude of the North-South Seismic Belt is predicted in the future 5 vears.