摘要
首先由灰色系统方法得出作物生育期降雨序列的GM(1,1)微分方程 ,据此建立了作物生育期降雨量的自记忆数值预报模型。将该模型应用于郭堡水库灌区冬小麦和玉米生育期降雨量预报 ,结果表明 ,这种利用了多个观测往值信息的自记忆性灰色模型具有较高的预报精度。
A self-remembering numeric rainfall forecast model is developed on the basis of differential equation GM (1,1) of rainfall series during crop growing period by gray system method. The model is applied in rainfall forecast during the growing periods of winter wheat and corn in the Guobao Reservoir Irrigation District. The results show that the self-remembering numeric model, which uses multiple kinds of information observed, has high precision for rainfall forecast.
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2005年第1期65-67,共3页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
关键词
作物生育期降雨序列
微分方程
预报模型
crop growing period
rainfall series
differential equation
forecast model
