山东冬季气温年际变化及大气环流特征

Interannual Variation Characteristics of Temperature and the General Circulation Features During Winter in Shandong Province

采用经验正交函数 (EOF)方法分析山东省 43年 (1961 - 2 0 0 3年 )冬季气温变化 ,结果表明 ,第 1模态几乎反映了整个温度场的时空变化特征 ,冬季气温年际变化明显 ,增温显著 ;采用NCEP/NCAR月平均大气环流再分析资料 (1961 - 2 0 0 3年 ) ,分析表明 ,冷、暖冬大气环流差异明显 ,冷冬年 5 0 0hPa高度距平场呈北高南低的特征 ,西伯利亚高压加强 ,东亚大槽偏西加深 ,亚洲地区维持稳定的经向环流 ,利于冷空气南下 ,易造成冷冬 ;

Based on the winter-time temperature from eighty meteorological stations for 43 years (1961～2003) in Shandong Province and the monthly average reanalysis data on general circulation from the NCEP/NCAR, the spatial and temporal characteristics of the first model in EOF during winter are analyzed. The winter temperature rising trend is significant. The relationship between the general circulation and the winter temperature variation is discussed. The results show that there are marked differences in winter general circulation between the warmer and colder years. In colder winter, the general circulation anomaly distributing is plus in the north at 50°N latitude over Eurasia and minus in the south. There is a contrary situation in warmer winter. The Siberia High strengthen(weaken), Eastern Asia Trough western and strengthen(eastern and weaken), remaining steady longitude(latitude) circulation over Asia, benefited (not benefited )cold air southern, result easily in colder(warmer)winter.